Will the ANC win back the mayor's office in Tshwane?

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What the world believes

How this resolves

Closes: 23:59 SAST on 3 November 2026
Resolves: When the new City of Tshwane council formally elects an Executive Mayor. This can be weeks after the election.
Source: City of Tshwane council, first meetings of the 2026 to 2031 term
Rules: Resolves YES if the first Executive Mayor formally elected by the newly constituted City of Tshwane council after the 4 November 2026 elections is the ANC's candidate: whoever the ANC has officially selected for the post at the time of the vote. Resolves NO if that first elected mayor is anyone else, or if no Executive Mayor has been elected by 31 March 2027. Vote share and seat count do not decide it: an ANC mayor leading a coalition counts as YES.
If the source is down: If the City's own site is unavailable, the election is confirmed from the council's published minutes or from reporting by at least two national news outlets (for example News24, EWN or SABC News) naming the elected mayor and their party.
If plans change: Void only if the election in Tshwane is postponed beyond 31 January 2027 or set aside by a court before the council first meets. If the ANC changes its candidate before the council vote, the market follows whoever the ANC has officially selected. A mayor elected and later removed does not change the outcome: it resolves on the first election.